How forex reforms could boost capital inflow

Experts in economics and finance believe that the ongoing foreign exchange reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have the potential to bring back foreign portfolio and foreign direct investors to the country. Nigeria's stock market has experienced a consistent decline in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in recent years, primarily due to the volatility of the country's previous multiple exchange rate system. However, recent reports suggest that the CBN's decision to float the naira could restore confidence among foreign investors in Nigeria's stock market.

Over the past year, there has been a significant outflow of foreign investors from Nigeria's stock market, resulting in a substantial decrease in investments. In 2022 alone, FPI inflow to Nigeria's stock market decreased by $672 million (312.8 billion naira). Reports from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate a decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) over time as well. The quarterly Capital Importation reports published by the National Bureau of Statistics show that portfolio investments, representing foreign investments in Nigeria's stock market, fell from $957.5 million in the first quarter of 2022 to $285.2 million in the fourth quarter of the same year. On a year-on-year basis, capital importation through portfolio investments declined to $2.4 billion in 2022, compared to $3 billion in 2021.

Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are considered vital for the Nigerian economy. The Nigerian Exchange Limited, the official trading bourse in Nigeria, defines FPI outflow as the sale or liquidation of portfolio investments through the stock market, while FPI inflow includes purchase transactions on the Nigerian Exchange (equities only). A recent report by the Nigerian Exchange Limited indicated that foreign portfolio investors reduced their investments in Nigeria's stock market to N53.71 billion in the first quarter of 2023. This represents a 58.3% decline compared to the N128.91 billion invested in the corresponding period in 2022. The report also revealed a consistent decline in the value of FPI participation in the market from January to March 2023.

It is widely recognized that attracting international investors plays a crucial role in the performance of developing and emerging market economies like Nigeria. The ability to regain the trust and confidence of foreign investors is seen as a key factor in the economic performance and growth of the country.

 
 


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